Why Afghans fight

by Nick Floyd - 17 February 2010 1:19PM

My colleague in Afghanistan has seen Rodger's post in reply to his first piece, and offers a rejoinder below.  

A quick detail beforehand: I entirely agree with Rodger's point that it is unhelpful to 'try to view the Taliban as a homogenous group', but note that (1) that's not what my colleague said, and (2) I know that's not what he thinks. In fact, five years ago when we were both on the HQ Multinational Corps plans team in Baghdad, we both despaired at the 'Anti-Iraqi Forces' term used in planning work, and strove to encourage use of more precise names for specific adversary groups.

Thanks to Rodger Shanahan for taking an interest in my missive. I suppose each gains their views from different sources: I draw my perspective of what motivates many Afghan soldiers from nearly two years of planning, commanding and conducting combined operations between US Forces and Kandaks.

First, I will acknowledge the average Afghan is not known for his sense of volunteerism. Nevertheless, the fact that Afghan men are volunteering to serve openly — knowing full well that  the Haqqani Network and Taliban insurgents will viciously target them and their families — is an indicator that many Afghans are willing to fight against the reactionary elements of all of the disparate groupings within the loose collective grouping called 'Anti-Afghan Forces'.

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Pointers from the Pentagon

by Nick Floyd - 15 February 2010 2:17PM

In its intriguing analysis of last week's US$708 billion US defence budget proposal for 2011 (synopses here and here), the FT points to the fine line Secretary Gates is walking between crucial re-investment in the US military's human capital, funding the incredibly diverse procurement programs in each of the Services, and providing a focus on what is required here and now in current theatres – most notably Afghanistan.

This three-way dilemma should be familiar to analysts and Defence staff here in Australia. Meanwhile the budget increases for nuclear weapons and their control sysytems, and ballistic missile defence, may come as surprise to some.

Salient also, for Defence planners, analysts and industries involved in Australia's defence modernisation: the analysis of 'what's in' and 'what's out' among the various programs. It may not translate directly, but for those defence punters who have similar programs competing in the race for dollars here in the Australian stakes, it might be worth reviewing which 'horses' have been backed, and which haven't. Careful — there have been some scratchings!

Photo by Flickr user *raymond, used under a Creative Commons license.

Afghanistan: A revolutionary struggle?

by Nick Floyd - 11 February 2010 4:25PM

A US Army colleague in Afghanistan (second tour) has circulated a letter in which he tells the story of an Afghan National Army soldier, whose tragic fate had just been announced by the Afghan Government: 

Until today, most people will have never heard of or seen Naqibulah Adbul Wakhel. Born in the village of Jzar Bahg in the Takhar province of Afghanistan, Wakhel was a soldier late of the 3rd Brigade, 201st Corps, Afghan National Army. During a mission on November 30, 2009, Private Naqibulah was on a patrol in the Surobi District of Kabul when his vehicle was destroyed by an improvised explosive device placed on the road by the Taliban. When the device detonated, Naqibulah died in the service of his country and his people, and was rewarded with martyrdom by the Imam assigned to the 3rd Brigade.

It is important to understand Private Naqibulah’s life and his sacrifice because he was, as are many like him, the new face of Afghanistan – the twenty-first century revolutionaries. They are among the thousands of Afghan soldiers who, along with the Coalition forces, take the fight to the Taliban insurgents.  These soldiers come from all walks of life and all over Afghanistan.  They all have one thing in common, to unite in the cause of building their country out of the ashes caused by 30 years of devastation.

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Coral reefs critical to maritime security

by Nick Floyd - 5 February 2010 10:11AM

I have always thought that marine biology sounded like a pretty good career choice. 

Though fate took me elsewhere, this might explain why, while the RAN Sea Power Conference debated some big military-strategic questions, I skipped out for a period to attend a Maritime Advancement Award presentation by Dr Alison Jones of Central Queensland University, on the world-leading work she and her colleagues have just completed on marine refuges in the Great Barrier Reef.

Such research is clearly pertinent in Australia, by providing policy-makers with quality analysis on how best to husband biosystems crucial for tourism, professional fishing and recreational fishing. But it struck me as important at the international policy level because of the opportunity it creates to assist our Pacific and Southeast Asian neighbours in securing their marine resources. For them, maritime eco-sustainability is synonymous with economic survival.

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Notes from the Sea Power conference

by Nick Floyd - 3 February 2010 1:14PM

Last week's Sea Power 2010 Conference charted a course for Australia's amphibious forces, and the security environment in which they will operate. The impressive range of Australian and international speakers sparked quite a few insights, and reminded us of others. Some of the key takeaways I drew are below.

  • Australia has an important maritime legacy, both civil and military. Our first military action as a lead nation was an amphibious operation, clearing Pacific German possessions in the very first months of the Great War.
  • Projecting power and influence from the sea is as important as projecting power and influence at sea. Sea power is in part about the projection of power and influence within the littoral environment, where the land and sea environments meet — the littoral extends into each environment as far as force and influence can be projected from the other. Importantly, the littoral is influenced by other domains – not just air, but increasingly, space and cyberspace. Success in the littoral environment demands capabilities working in a symbiotic relationship in each of these domains.
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Felling the 'evil flowers'

by Nick Floyd - 13 November 2009 9:55AM

This week's Wednesday Lowy Lunch featured the ADF's Brigadier Phil Winter speaking on efforts to counter the threat of Improvised Explosive Devices – IEDs, or what Afghans are now calling, with grim poetry, the 'evil flowers'. 

As commander of Australia's Counter-IED Task Force, Brigadier Winter revealed how IEDs are now the number one killer of coalition forces, with this year's fighting season seeing a record number of attacks. Winter stressed the importance of not only exploiting technology, but of relying on the human and cultural dimension to counter IEDs.

You can listen to Brigadier Winter's address here or listen to an excellent follow-up interview with the ABC's Matt Brown here (transcript here). But for me, the key themes were:

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Solar-powered swarming

by Nick Floyd - 2 November 2009 8:40AM

The notion of 'swarming' entered the Australian military lexicon some years ago and is reflected in the Army’s 2004 landmark concept document, 'Complex warfighting' (which, by the way, has just been superseded by 'Adaptive Campaigning – Army's Future Land Operating Concept').

The idea of swarming is to mimic the collective behaviour and action of communal creatures – particularly arthropods such as bees, ants and hornets. Through swarming, a single aim or mission can be diffused and acted upon simultaneously across the community, causing it to strive towards a common purpose. 

Importantly, swarming does not mean all individuals perform identical actions. Instead, each creature somehow knows its own particular role, and performs one of a range of sub-tasks which contributes to a higher common goal.

This appeals to military tacticians because it mirrors how mission statements are now composed in ADF and similar defence forces: 'You do X in order to achieve Y'. The key point is that ultimately, the mission has succeeded so long as ‘Y’ is achieved: the execution of ‘X’ may not be essential if that sub-task has become impractical, redundant or unsupportable.

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There's more to New Caledonia

by Nick Floyd - 29 September 2009 12:15PM

Nic Maclellan makes a timely reminder of Australia’s cyclical blind spot across the Coral Sea. Last week marked the sixty-ninth anniversary of Australia’s involvement in installing Free French control in New Caledonia — a mostly forgotten but key step in securing Australia’s north-eastern flank at the absolute nadir of Allied efforts during the Second World War.

The frequent omission of New Caledonia in much of Australia’s contemporary thinking on the Pacific, and Melanesia more specifically, belies the significance of our Coral Sea neighbour — both at the strategic level, and at the human and societal levels.

On 19 September 1940, an Australian cruiser, HMAS Adelaide (pictured), faced down the guns of the coastal forts and a Vichy gunboat to install a Free French governor in Nouméa. The action brought about a change in the colony’s allegiance that would deny a South Pacific bastion to a then-menacing Japan, and deliver a future port and staging base rivalling San Francisco to the Allied Pacific campaign. read more

Terrorism: A lethal osmosis

by Nick Floyd - 15 September 2009 9:37AM

The discovery and defusing on Wednesday last week of a 270kg improvised explosive device in Northern Ireland points to a worrying practice that security analysts well beyond the UK should be considering carefully: violent extremist groups are searching globally for tactics, techniques and procedures. Reporting in the Financial Times, the Guardian, the UK Telegraph and our own ABC reveals that bomb componentry, size, detonation arrangements and placement in this incident had much in common with that in other conflict zones around the world.

This shows how some violent extremist groups – not just in Northern Ireland but elsewhere – are becoming what are described as 'learning organisations' and exploiting media that transcend societies, ideologies, causes or command & control networks.

How do we know? As an analogy, almost every army has the tactic of ambush in its doctrine books. The Australian Army, for instance, teaches a particular style of ambush; the placement of individual weapons, devices and personnel inside the ambush site are all described and explained. After an ambush has occurred, a smart intelligence collection team could analyse the site and — if the style parallels with our profile — determine that the ambush was carried out by an Australian Army patrol. Or, if we weren't operating in that area, they could then reasonably deduce it was a group trained in or otherwise following our doctrine.

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Feeding the reactors

by Nick Floyd - 9 September 2009 3:09PM

This FT article today is a startling insight into the world's plans for switching to nuclear power. Those of us who know nothing of nuclear reactors except Lucas Heights, Chernobyl and the one Monty Burns built in Springfield are in for a shock. The accompanying interactive map shows alternately the 436 reactors currently in operation worldwide, the 50 being built, and the 432 planned for construction before 2030.

While some of these might be various governments' pipe dreams and domestic agenda sweeteners, there is no doubt that a lot of uranium and other nuclear fuel will be moving around the globe in the next twenty years. Regardless of whether Australia decides to add nuclear energy to its mix (and by the way, the FT's map upholds Australia's modesty, with a strategically placed insert map of Europe serving as a fig-leaf for our non-nuclear status!), we do need to consider carefully the implications for our nation:

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Renewable security linkages

by Nick Floyd - 21 August 2009 1:25PM

The Australian Government’s new renewable energy bill mandates that twenty percent of Australian domestic electricity must be drawn from renewable sources by 2020. Whatever environmental benefit, the bill’s passage is a timely event to reconsider the opportunities Australia can derive from linking renewable energy, security and foreign policy, especially in regard to fragile states.

Erecting wind turbines – Province Nord, New Caledonia, 2007.

Provision of reliable energy outside urban centres in many countries is terribly problematic. Even in capitals such as Baghdad, locals can bank on only a few hours of electricity supply per day – worse now than the average of 10-12 hours when I was there in 2006. One can only imagine what it's like in rural areas.

Transmission is one of the main challenges, particularly in the incredibly rugged, remote or archipelagic topographies of places like Papua New Guinea (where only three percent of roads are sealed), Afghanistan (where only ten percent of the population have access to electricity) and Indonesia (with over 221 million people and over 17,000 islands). 

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The national security phalanx

by Nick Floyd - 11 August 2009 11:02AM

The strength of the ancient Greek/Macedonian phalanx drew from symbiotic protection. The shield carried by each hoplite soldier afforded protection to his neighbour, and so on in each rank. Each hoplite’s life depended on working in intimate and precise cooperation with his comrades – demonstrating perhaps one of the earliest forms of interoperability.

Today, recent alleged domestic terrorism plots, bombings in Jakarta, pandemic fears and climate change repercussions underscore the need for agencies to cooperate closely, to both understand and prepare for the national security challenges confronting Australia. 

As the Federal Government begins to prepare the successor to its first National Security Statement, we need to consider how best to make our national security interoperability more effective. The ADF’s recent operational experiences and unique insights into interoperability and multi-agency coordination afford it a capacity to assist.

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Lessons from North Korea

by Nick Floyd - 27 July 2009 3:33PM

Today is the anniversary of the Korean War ceasefire agreement, signed at Panmunjom, Korea in 1953. What is perhaps most instructive about the Korean conflict and its relevance to military force modernisation and development, is its degree of discontinuity with what could have been expected.

An esteemed former colleague used to say — ‘the future is already fixed: we can’t hope to be right — but we can’t afford to be too far wrong!’ And in one sense, preparing military forces for the future is perennially attempting to achieve a balance between those events most likely to occur in the future, and those with the greatest consequence.

But for Korea, warning of the crisis was abrupt and the consequences were equally grave. The thirteen UN nations supporting had less than two weeks to scramble after the UN Security Council Resolutions 82 and 83 recommended member-state military assistance to the Republic of Korea, while the final death toll of over three million dead included nearly 3,000 non-US allied soldiers, of which 340 were Australian.

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Leading from the front

by Nick Floyd - 10 July 2009 4:26PM

British Lt Col Rupert Thorneloe was killed last week in Helmand province – the first British officer of that rank to fall in action since ‘H’ Jones in the Falklands in 1982. This op-ed in the Telegraph from Tim Collins – himself a commander on operations early in the Iraq campaign — provides insight into the motivation, emotions and results of leading on operations that only personal experience can provide.

The compulsion for leaders to be at the forefront and their unwillingness to rely on technology for command can seem inexplicable. For those who might think technology can replace the intensely human interactions and shared experiences that guide a commander’s decisions and actions, Collins' poignant valedictory lifts the veil somewhat. 

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Haptics: Can you feel it?

by Nick Floyd - 29 June 2009 10:30AM

While I’m sold on the need to understand the human dimension to conflict, I’m equally convinced that the military has to be an ‘early adopter’ of new technology. One area that has accelerated at a truly awesome rate is the field of Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs), and the counters to them. Thanks to IEDs and landmines, untold hectares of the world are rendered too dangerous to inhabit, but there are new ways to come to grips with this problem.

Haptics is a technology that can keep munitions disposal crews away from such lethal devices while leaving human judgement firmly in control. Haptics applies tactile sensation via computer applications, so that users receive feedback in the form of felt sensations. Touch screens are the most familiar haptics application in daily life, but research and limited fielding has had successes in not one, but multiple degrees of freedom – that is, the operator can ‘sense’ touch in three dimensions remotely.

Until fairly recently, actually picking up objects remotely has been limited to a two-hand grasp (a bit like Frankenstein’s monster), but as ABC viewers might have seen, some bright lads from Geelong have developed a lightweight way to singlehandedly manipulate objects with an opposable grip in a virtual environment, while also feeling the forces generated by that environment. 

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How green was my Swat Valley

by Nick Floyd - 24 June 2009 1:50PM

People don’t usually link counter-insurgency efforts with the colour green — unless it's a secondary reference to its status within the Islamic faith. But there are increasing examples of the military applying ‘green’ energy in the field, which is not just ecologically sound, but also offers operational benefits.

Most people have an idea of the propensity of the average soldier to solve an incredible range of problems with ‘a couple of cans and two bits of string’. In part this is a reaction to the perennial and ubiquitous problems of materiel resupply; but it’s also a reflection of what we call ‘Digger ingenuity’, and our American friends call (as only they could) a ‘field expedient’. 

Well, our Pakistani comrades are providing illuminating examples of not only soldier ingenuity, but also an adaptiveness to sustainable technology. The Financial Times reports how, in the depths of their campaign against Taliban militants in and around the Swat Valley near the North-West frontier (itself a compelling account), Pakistani soldiers are using solar PV cells to support their ‘tactics, techniques and procedures’ — in particular, for anti-infiltration lighting. 

The much harder step will be to broaden such energy use for wider benefit. I wonder who else will ‘switch on’ soon?

Photo by Flickr user eastpole, used under a Creative Commons license.

Refreshing language in the ADF

by Nick Floyd - 19 June 2009 5:20PM

Who says future conflict is only about high technology and robotics? With captivating publications about such as Peter Singer’s recent book, Wired for War, it’s important for the military to keep a balance in the sources it uses in decision-making, and to take account of the human dimension.

The ADF uses cutting-edge language learning tools for in-theatre translation, but there is always a need for ‘humans in the loop’ when engaging across cultures.

Working in the Coalition corps headquarters with the Iraqi Army command, I was able to see the value to combined planning of operations that linguists bring, particularly when there's empathy between the cultures involved. 

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India and energy: Rediscovering serendipity

by Nick Floyd - 5 June 2009 11:03AM

Here in Australia we are slowly re-awakening to the strategic importance of the Indian Ocean and its surrounding states. But long before the end of the first millennium AD, Chinese junks were plying their trade routes out to the east coast of India, and Arab dhows penetrated through to the East China Sea. Today we use the Old Persian name for Sri Lanka — known then as Serendip — to describe the notion of ‘accidental wisdom’. It's a good descriptor for what those early traders displayed, by capitalising on the routes that skirted that very island. 

In later centuries, West Europeans became East Indiamen, and joined their Asiatic forerunners, taking advantage of the Roaring Forties’ slingshot from the Cape of Good Hope, before heeling 'hard a’ larboard' just short of the West Australian coast (though not always, as the ill-fated Batavia crew tragically discovered).

Dominating this historic trade superhighway is India, whose energy security is increasingly dependent on these routes. read more

ADF: 'Cutting fat' more than a euphemism

by Nick Floyd - 27 May 2009 9:41AM

I’m shamed into admitting it — I am one of the 9,206 Australian Defence Force (ADF) personnel determined as either overweight or obese by a report recently tabled to the Senate Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence & Trade – a travesty broken by Paul Maley in the Australian last week.

The report used data presented in the form of the Body Mass Index (BMI), which has its limitations. For instance, I currently tip the scales at 74kg and measure a height of 172 cm, which if rounded up unkindly gives me a BMI of 26! According to a BMI calculator, the 'Acceptable' range is between 20 and 25 (Maley’s article cites a slightly different division of more than 25 as overweight). 'Overweight' is 26 to 30 and 'Obese' is over 31.

But using the BMI as a health measure is impractical on military personnel, particularly on soldiers whose profession depends on it. Try sprinting, dodging and climbing hills while at times wearing twenty kilos of gear and body armour, and you’ll get what I mean.

The problem rests with the use of information beyond its applicable parameters – a common fault with statistics. The BMI doesn’t distinguish fat from muscle tissue, and is therefore beyond useful application when measuring people with high muscle proportion, noting muscle’s greater density than fat. To put this in perspective, George Gregan’s previous match stats of 76 kg and 173 cm give him effectively the same result as me! 

But while modesty and prudence would stop further close comparison there (I have green eyes), the point remains: people who are selected and continually train for both explosive (anaerobic) and sustained (aerobic) physical activity will trend towards high muscle proportion. 

Of course, there are ADF members for whom the ‘mass’ in the BMI is more fat than muscle. And obesity in Defence is rightly a concern, as flagged by the ADF’s Surgeon-General, Major-General Alexander in January – as it is for Australian society in general. 

But even when using the maladroit BMI, the ADF’s given obesity rate is 6 percent lower than general society’s. So, I would suggest we don’t need to start cutting larger turrets in our armoured vehicles or retro-fitting bigger cockpits in our Super Hornets just yet.  I’d prefer to see the introduction of a more appropriate tool to measure the general health and fitness of the ADF as a group of non-standard individuals, by which we can focus efforts on real problem areas.

Photo by Flickr user Cookieevans5, used under a Creative Commons license.

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